Learn how the CIRCLE OF INFERENCE can mitigate conflict on your team.
Ashley arrived 15 minutes late to this morning’s 9am varsity women’s volleyball practice. Last night she sent out a snap at 10pm from a party. This is the second time Ashley’s been late this month. What assumptions is her coach making? How about her teammates?
As humans we don’t have the power to read minds, yet every day we’re faced with the task of trying to understand what others are thinking. We do this so we can determine our own actions. When we misinterpret another’s motivations based on our own perception of the facts it can lead to conflict. In simple terms we jump to conclusions. Human nature leads us to do this hundreds of times every day. And this is the root of avoidable team conflict.
The Circle of Inference
The Circle of Inference[1] is an adaptation of the Ladder of Inference Theory, developed by organizational psychologist Chris Argyris and used by Peter Senge in The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization.[2] It helps us understand the assumptions and decision-making that guides our daily lives. Slowing down our decision-making process by applying this tool can help us make great choices, manage conflict and build relationships.
Facts
A fact is not something that’s open to interpretation. It is pure data. It can be observed by anyone.
1. Ashley sent a snap from a party at 10pm.
2. Ashley was 15 minutes late for practice this morning.
3. Ashley was 20 minutes late for practice last Sunday morning.
Selected and Interpreted Facts
Selected facts are the facts we pull (notice or think are important) based on our past experiences, culture, upbringing, state of mind, level of distraction, preferences and tendencies.
1. Ashley sent a snap.
2. Ashley was 15 minutes late for practice this morning.
3. Ashley was 20 minutes late for practice last Sunday morning.
Assumptions
Assumptions are what we believe to be true, but are not based on fact. Assumptions are made using the selected facts we take from a situation. They are often made in a split second and occur hundreds of times in a day. They inform our decisions—we analyze information and draw conclusions about reality based on them.
1. Ashley was late for practice because she overslept after staying out late at a party.
Beliefs
Beliefs are formed once an assumption is made. You can’t have a belief without an assumption. A belief is also the foundation for decision making. Once you arrive at a belief—again, all of this happens in seconds—you move forward with a decision, and take an action.
1. Ashley cares more about partying than her team.
2. Ashley has low commitment to the team.
3. Ashley makes poor choices.
Actions
An action naturally flows out of a decision. We make decisions based on our beliefs.
1. Team members gossip about Ashley.
2. Team members don’t pass to Ashley during games.
How to Work Through the Circle
Step 1: Start at the top of the Circle with the facts.
Ask yourself: What do I know? Make a list of every single fact you know—even things that seem insignificant.
1. Ashley sent a snap at 10pm of an image of herself at a party.
2. Ashley arrived at practice at 9:15am this week and 9:20am last week.
3. The 9am practice start time was listed on Team snap.
Step 2: Review your selected facts.
By virtue of you personally selecting the information you did when you made note of the facts, the information is a list of selected facts. Now you need to see if there are any other facts—missed considerations—you may have omitted. As with Step 1, for each selected fact, ask yourself, How do I know this? Are these selected facts based on a core value that I have? If so, what is that value, and how does it impact my choice in fact selection? Go back and look at the facts and look for facts that you have missed and those that you need more information. Take note of them.
1. Ashley sent a snap at 10pm.
2. Ashley was late for 9am practice this week and last.
3. What time did Ashley leave the party last night at?
4. What happened this morning to make her late?
Step 3: Review the situation for assumptions.
Remember that an assumption is a piece of information that has not been proven to be true or based on facts. List your assumptions. Identify which assumptions are safe assumptions—assumptions you have some facts to back up. Ask more questions here if necessary.
What time did Ashley leave the party at?
Did Ashley sleep in?
Are there other reasons other than sleeping in for Ashley to be late for practice?
Step 4: Identify your beliefs.
Ask yourself these questions: What are my personal beliefs going into this situation? What beliefs have I formed based on the facts, the selected facts and the assumptions that I have made? What do I believe to be true, that might not be? What conclusions have I drawn as a result? How might my personal values be impacting my conclusions?
My personal value is that I need to get at least 8 hours sleep at night.
I do not attend parities the night before practice because I don’t feel I will be my best self at practice.
My teammates should not attend parties the night before practice.
Not attending parties shows a strong commitment to the team.
Step 5. Decide on an action and confirm that decision.
Once you have gone through your analysis, make a decision based on what you know are facts and safe assumptions. Test your decision by checking out viable alternatives. How would different assumptions create different actions? What happens when I try to consider alternate possibilities in my interpretations of the facts?
My action will be to ask Ashley why she was late for practice. this week and last.
My action will be to speak with Ashley with an open mind. I will not make assumptions, speculate or gossip with my teammates until I have spoken with Ashley directly to clarify all of the facts.
The challenge.
The next time you find yourself jumping to a conclusion about another person’s actions, slow it down and hop on the circle.
[1] Adapted by Aphesis Group: https://www.aphesisgroup.com/living-loved/im-surrounded-by-a-bunch-of-idiots-circle-of-inference-part-2-of-3/
[2]https://books.google.ca/books/about/The_Fifth_Discipline.html?id=OtyLDQAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
